Spotting Iinefficiencies In Sports Betting
Richard Bleuze
If you want to win in the efficient market of sports wagering, you have to continuosly search out inefficiencies within the marketplace. It is something I pride myself on, it is tedious work of countless hours, but the return is substantial.
Included below is one angle that you might wish to include in your arsenol. Although it yields a minimum amount of plays per season, when you have many to call on, it adds profitability over the longhaul. And afterall, that is what you are looking for when you bet on sports.
So how do you find inefficiencies. By the way, the sports books operate in an efficient market?
Let's begin with the premise, and that is this. What is about the worst thing that can happen to a profeesional athlete, in terms of defeat in an NFL game? Why, of course, it is getting shutout at home, on your turf, in front of a sellout crowd. That is about as humiliating as it gets for a pro athlete, a head coach, an offensive coordinator, owner, and right down to the fans and media.
Your now the football fanatic, that loves to lay a little cash on a game during the week, and as you peruse the betting lines, the fresh memory of team "X" that was shutout at home engrained in your mind, makes you avoid that team like the plague, afterall, how comfortable is it to put your hard earned cash on a team that couldn't even muster a point at home? So you look at their opponent, and it feels good to know that your playing against a team that can't do anything! Well, guess what, that thought process will send you to the poorhouse! Now your the oddsmakers, knowing the public isn't going to swallow anything on team "X" unless it is nice and juicy! So knowing his clients, he is going to load a few extra points against our inept team "X". Thank you MR. oddsmaker, because you have now turned an efficient market, into an inefficient one, and I'm going to take advantage of a market that has now swung the advantage over to your side.
So let's investigate how teams that were shutout in the NFL at home in their last game. Since the 1991-92 season to the close of the 2007-08 season, which is 17 years, this has happened only 45 times. Our team "X", the one that was shutout in their previous game at home is 32-13 ATS!!! That is 71.1 of the time, the pointspread was decisive! The NFL average of when the pointspread comes into play, is about 22% of the time. Can you now see the influence of perception? Can you see how the oddsmakers are forced to make an efficient market, inefficient, based on a particular scenerio? The pointspread was padded to the point that on more than double the occasion, it turned a loser into a winner!!!!
Another inefficient sports bet can be found we you search the small college conferences for either basketball or football. Most oddsmakers cannot do their homework on the the conferences since most sports bettors usually only play the major conferences. Thus, find and study a small local conference that most oddsmakers overlook since they do not get many bets placed on those teams.
This is what I mean by spotting inefficiencies in the marketplace. It is something I do on almost daily and it is why I can beat an otherwise efficient market!!! Maybe this gives you a better understanding of one element of what I do, and hopefully some incites to help you understand where the money is. Just remember when a team is shutout at home, PLAY THEM NEXT GAME!!!! You will be a winner!
About the author:
Richard provides articles and information about gambling on his site at http://www.24-7wagering.com
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