The aviation industry: oil prices are expected to maintain the low range

From the domestic passenger business point of view, the growth rate reflects not only the same period in 2008 was suppressed demand, but also contains the natural growth of the industry. Undergone restructuring and integration of the three aircraft "three pillars" of the situation in the formal establishment of the airlines in the fleet of construction, network layout, marketing ideas and other aspects of the more rational thinking and operations. Demand for domestic airline industry recovery, moderate capacity growth, fuel prices remain relatively low, the airline industry's profitability will gradually improve.

According to CAA statistics, in July 2009, completed aviation transportation turnover 3.7 billion tons km, passenger transport volume of 2103 million people, cargo and mail transport volume of 360,000 tons, respectively, over the same period last year grew 13.5%, 21.9% and 3.2% , the domestic aviation market season Ruqierzhi. Air China, China Southern and China Eastern Airlines three major domestic passenger traffic grew 21.9%, respectively, 15.5% and 30.17%. However, due to sluggish international market, domestic airlines will add capacity and some international shipping lines shifted to the domestic aviation market, Air China, China Southern and China Eastern investment in the capacity on international routes increased by -12.5%, respectively, 0.6% and -1.94% The capacity in the domestic passenger market inputs, respectively, an increase of 20.6%, 15.2% and 29.4%, the industry load factor, although the carriage rate significantly higher than the same period in 2008, rebounded, but did not return to 2007 levels. Compared to passenger pick up, freight recovery is still not satisfactory.

Route points of view, to benefit from the release of domestic economic recovery and demand in the domestic market season is approaching, to maintain high growth domestic routes, fares index to rise again.

From the passenger load factor point of view, in July 2009 was up 76.6% Load Factor, the chain increased 2.8 percent, an increase of 1.7 percent; are class carriage rate of 66.9% over the previous year are slightly higher than Central. Input from the capacity point of view, the airline is still the capacity to invest in domestic, to invest in passenger transport market, capacity investment and market demand showing consistency. Fare level from the point of view, in July, regardless of distance, intermediate, or extension, domestic airlines ticket prices have significantly exceeded the same period in 2007 and 2008 levels, an important commercial and tourist city ticket discounts significantly reduced, most of the business city prices remain above the Bazhe.

Although the rate of increase is far behind international flights domestic flights, but international routes to achieve positive growth for the first time, an increase of 0.33%. Because the airlines are not to put more capacity on international flights, international passenger load factor, significantly increased.

According to data released by IATA, the international business major decline in passenger aviation market has been greatly narrowed. However, international routes and in Asia, Hong Kong and Macao routes fare levels have not been signs of recovery, according to IATA statistics, data, although international passenger traffic rebounded significantly, but the airlines to some extent at the expense of votes price level price. At present, the international aviation market is still some time before full recovery, especially the "two-class" business. Driven by the civil aviation business, airport passenger throughput and aircraft movements and the gradual recovery in these two indicators, in particular the same period in 2008 suppressed the capital's airport and Shuangliu Airport, traffic fast recovery. Benefit from the FedEx hub in business growth, Baiyun airport, cargo and mail throughput rapid growth. Currently, the airport's cargo operations at a relatively slow overall situation, the international air cargo business is still shrinking gradually decline, global slowdown in economic growth is expected under the influence of the slackness of cargo operations will continue.

With international oil prices, domestic fuel prices began to rise. September 2, 2009, the domestic jet fuel prices rise by 300 yuan / ton, jet fuel sales rose to 5,490 yuan / ton, the level of fuel prices back to early 2006 levels, domestic fuel prices and international fuel prices have been inversion.

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