Alumina aluminum market shocks offer up is hard to change patterns - Refractory Industry

September 1, China's largest aluminum producer?? Chalco alumina quote again greatly increased to 2550 yuan / ton, price increase by as much as 6.25%, but market experts say a substantial increase in the short term aluminum and alumina can not offer vibration pattern of the recent changes in aluminum prices.

Earlier this year, Chalco has to alumina prices from 2600 yuan per tonne, down to 2,000 yuan, down 23%, but then continue to rise as aluminum, alumina aluminum quotes have gone up so far this year has been a total of 27.5% price increase. Medium-term futures analyst with Shanghai Union said that despite rising raw materials prices of alumina soon, but the spot price of aluminum has recently been held steady at 14,900 yuan / ton, see limited impact of aluminum price increases. Union pointed out: "On the one hand, the amount of days now inventory of aluminum at home and abroad remain, consumption do not increase, while aluminum production capacity has gradually recovered; the other hand, offer further support in a spot of aluminum, so aluminum is generally awkward dilemma in up and down. "

New Lake futures analyst Dai Yaoting that the alumina market, higher prices will not lead to aluminum market out of recent stalemate, because the domestic manufacturers will not substantially increase short-term ex-factory price of aluminum. According to the said effect by the metal prices rise, the average operating rate of this industry to reduce production capacity has been restored to about 70% before the aluminum industry figures could be higher, only to resume production in Henan about 80%.

Daiyao Ting said: "The first half of the aluminum industry, the general trend is to restore profitability, productivity re-opened since the beginning of the national aluminum industry average profit margin is 13% rise in aluminum prices of raw materials sufficient to change the overall trend of earnings, stock declines, may has little impact on futures prices it is short. "

Gong Joan McNair futures analyst pointed out that aluminum has been lagging behind the price increase, the recent domestic alumina market and offer a lot of imports are as high as 2,600 yuan / ton, ex-factory price increases are compensatory growth following the market . In addition, the aluminum alumina contracts signed each year, alumina prices are generally point to three-month LME aluminum prices 17% to 19% for the benchmark, are long single price; domestic alumina in each case offer Single quotes are retail, relatively fixed price adjustment mechanism. Retail price changes one single price in line with the long, so price adjustment or within a reasonable range, the impact on the futures market is not very big. Gong King said: "before the price increase in aluminum, alumina prices on imports have risen sharply, and many are in the aluminum business unit of imports, so it increased its offer two months although more than 250 yuan, but they are to make up for market the difference. "

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